Policy Memos

Build New Strategic Relationship and Avoid Misjudgment Between China and US

According to my observation and research, China’s military modernization including nuclear force development fastened its speed since 1999 or so. There are major four factors which made Chinese leaders began to rethink the international situation and its national security environment. Firstly, frequent military interventions and regional wars in the post-Cold War years, though with various backgrounds, strengthened the role and position of the military in international relations.

The United States currently owns the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, with more than 5,000 operational nuclear weapons. Most of these weapons are located inside U .S. territory – in missile silos, on bombers, and inside storage facilities. Others sit on U.S. nuclear submarines, traversing the ocean. Sometimes forgotten, however, are the nuclear weapons that the United States stores on foreign soil. Today, more than two decades after the end of the Cold War, five countries – Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey – host about 200 U.S. nuclear warheads.

• It is obvious that there is growing discrepancy in comprehension of strategic issues in India and Pakistan.
• Pakistan is one of the potential adversaries of India, which could have plans to use conventional and nuclear forces not only against Pakistan.
• Missile programs of India and Pakistan demonstrate different trends. India tries to expand the missile range and it works on warheads. Also it develops the naval strategic forces, working on SSNBs and sea-based missiles.

“The international security environment has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold War. The threat of global nuclear war has become remote, but the risk of nuclear attack has increased...These changes in the nuclear threat environment – especially the heightened concern about nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation and the less dangerous strategic interaction between the United States and Russia – have not emerged overnight. They have developed over the last twenty years, and Administrations of both parties have responded with modifications of U.S.

Further Development in the New Era

The year 2011 marked the sixtieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Pakistan. In retrospect of China-Pakistan relations in the past sixty years, it’s not difficult to conclude that security relation is the most important aspect in the bilateral relations. Generally speaking, China-Pakistan nuclear cooperation is an unavoidable subject when it comes to talk about the security relations between them.

Jarrod Hayes’ in his conceptual piece “Nuclear Disarmament and Stability in the Logic of Habit” draws upon the paper “The Logic of Habit in International Relations” by Ted Hopf, who in turn focuses on one of the four ‘orientations’ of social action distinguished by Max Weber. Hopf, following Weber, emphasizes that the logic of habit “precludes rationality, agency, and uncertainty” [Hopf]. Habits are the way to deal with limited intellectual capacity and they always reinforce the status quo.

Technology, Policy and Posture (A Case-Study of Pakistan)

This memo is based on an on-going study that explores the phenomenon of nuclear knowledge diffusion at conceptual level. Based on conceptual understanding it traces diffusion of nuclear knowledge in Pakistan with a focus on three main areas; technology, policy and posture.

Lessons from South Korea and Britain

Over the past decade, the question of how to prevent nuclear proliferation in both the Middle East and East Asia has gained significant urgency. Apparently in part due to Iran’s progress towards acquiring a nuclear weapons breakout capability and North Korea’s acquisition of rudimentary nuclear weapons, several U.S. allies and friendly states appear to be at least opening the door to potential future pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Scholars and practitioners argue that transparency will play an important role in “cultivating confidence” on the “road to zero.” But, the conceptual definitions and implied meanings of transparency vary among the many disciplines and communities involved in the study and practice of international security. Moreover, there is little to no consensus on the origins, mechanics, or dynamics of this phenomenon.

Disagreement between China and the United States regarding ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems has lasted for more than a decade. Up to now, we did not see any sign of solving this problem in near future. This memo will discuss how to solve this dilemma. Specifically, this article will discuss the technical and political impacts of U.S. BMD on China’s nuclear deterrence, and work out hypothetical solutions.