6: Liu: Policy Memo: Motivations of China’s Nuclear Force Modernization

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Build New Strategic Relationship and Avoid Misjudgment Between China and US

According to my observation and research, China’s military modernization including nuclear force development fastened its speed since 1999 or so. There are major four factors which made Chinese leaders began to rethink the international situation and its national security environment. Firstly, frequent military interventions and regional wars in the post-Cold War years, though with various backgrounds, strengthened the role and position of the military in international relations. China was forced to pay more attention to national defense construction than that in the previous nearly 20 years when China focused mainly on its economic reform and development. Secondly, Sino-US relations went through a process of strategic trust built in the late of Cold War since 1972 to mutual-suspicion after the end of Cold War in the late of 1990s. This kind of transformation seems stronger recently unfortunately and has influenced the basis of China’s overall strategy including defense strategy. Thirdly, the missile defense plan of US has been generally regarded by China as a powerful and authentic threat to its minimum nuclear capability which stimulated directly China to look for possible countermeasures. Fourth, the US recent returning to Asia and Pacific with high military character is making the security environment around China more complicated. Among theses diversified motivations of China’s nuclear modernization, the factor of the US takes the first place. Exploring the ways of dealing with Sino-US relations, esp. the military relations could be helpful for avoiding any arms race between two big countries. Here are some personal understandings and suggestions according to my paper “Motivations of China’s Nuclear Force Modernization”.