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CREATING A CONSTITUENCY FOR UNILATERAL NUCLEAR RESTRAINT IN PAKISTAN: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

Sadia Tasleem — Thu, 12 May 2016 00:15:00 +0000

CREATING A CONSTITUENCY FOR UNILATERAL NUCLEAR RESTRAINT IN PAKISTAN: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

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Sadia Tasleem Wed, 05/11/2016 - 20:15

The last few years have revealed an increasing trend of ‘vertical proliferation’ in the South Asian region. Recent revelations about quantitative and qualitative developments in the nuclear and missile inventories of India and Pakistan indicate a higher likelihood of an impending nuclear arms competition in the region. If the disintegration of the Soviet Union set any precedent, it suggests that an arms race would be to the detriment of Pakistan’s national security. First, nuclear weapons do not prevent proxy wars and therefore may not improve the quality of a state’s security; second a large number of nuclear weapons cannot help a state prevent its disintegration from within; and third a nuclear arms competition amongst the two protagonists is to the detriment of the state which, like Pakistan, has a lesser ability to absorb undue pressures on its fragile economy. Yet Pakistan is increasing both its fissile material stockpile and its dependency on nuclear weapons and public discussion about unilateral arms control or nuclear restraint is negligible.

Bibliography

Sadia Tasleem

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Tasleem - POSSE 2015 Draft Paper.pdf

Moscow’s emerging electronic warfare capabilities: a dangerous jammer on U.S./NATO-Russian relations?

ALoukianova — Wed, 11 May 2016 18:20:44 +0000

Moscow’s emerging electronic warfare capabilities: a dangerous jammer on U.S./NATO-Russian relations?

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ALoukianova Wed, 05/11/2016 - 14:20

Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have given Russia an opportunity to test the employment of electronic warfare (EW) capabilities that it has developed over the last decade in order to deter and counter military threats from the West. News reports suggest that pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine have utilized Russian systems and concepts for electronic warfare in their operations against Ukrainian government forces. In that conflict, jamming technologies have hindered the operations of monitoring drones flown by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Moscow also has touted that capabilities deployed in Russia’s area of operations in Syria could “blind” NATO radar systems.

Bibliography

Anya Loukianova is a PhD candidate, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park and a graduate fellow at the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM).

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Loukianova-Posse_Russian EW_final.pdf

ISA 2013 Panel on Continuity and Change in Nuclear Diplomacy: "Friends Don’t Let Friends Proliferate: Credibility, Security Assurances, and Allied Nuclear Proliferation"

Anonymous — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 16:58:08 +0000

ISA 2013 Panel on Continuity and Change in Nuclear Diplomacy: "Friends Don’t Let Friends Proliferate: Credibility, Security Assurances, and Allied Nuclear Proliferation"

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Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 03/29/2013 - 12:58

Over the past decade, the question of how to prevent nuclear proliferation in both the Middle East and East Asia has gained significant urgency. Apparently in part due to Iran’s progress towards acquiring a nuclear weapons breakout capability and North Korea’s acquisition of rudimentary nuclear weapons, several U.S. allies and friendly states appear to be at least opening the door to potential future pursuit of nuclear weapons. In the Middle East, for example, concerns have arisen over Egypt and Saudi Arabia’s decisions to bolster their civil nuclear infrastructures, with many viewing these moves as motivated at least in part by a desire to hedge their bets against Iran.

Bibliography

DRAFT – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION

Philipp C. Bleek, Assistant Professor

Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies Program
Monterey Institute of International Studies, a Graduate School of Middlebury College

Fellow, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

philippbleek@gmail.com
Eric Lorber, PhD Candidate

Department of Political Science
Duke University

JD Candidate, University of Pennsylvania Law School

Ebl2009@gmail.com

Paper Prepared for the Project On Strategic Stability Evaluation (POSSE) and the International Studies Association Annual Meeting, February 28, 2013

6: Fuhrmann & Sechser: POSSEVI: Nuclear Strategy, Nonproliferation, and the Causes of Foreign Nuclear Deployments

Anonymous — Tue, 05 Feb 2013 18:46:55 +0000

6: Fuhrmann & Sechser: POSSEVI: Nuclear Strategy, Nonproliferation, and the Causes of Foreign Nuclear Deployments

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Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 02/05/2013 - 13:46

Why do countries deploy nuclear weapons abroad? Since 1945, more than 20 states have hosted foreign nuclear weapons on their territory, and five countries continue to do so today. These deployments have important consequences for international security, yet there is little systematic research about the factors that drive them. In this article, we develop three broad theoretical frameworks to explain why foreign nuclear deployments occur. Using a new dataset of foreign nuclear deployments between 1945 and 2000, we find that two factors weigh heavily in driving these deployments: the protection of allies and the projection of military power. Nonproliferation motives, however, appear to play little role. The results carry important implications for our understanding of the causes of proliferation and the sources of nuclear posture.

6: Topychkanov: POSSEVI: India and Pakistan: Beyond Minimum Nuclear Deterrence?

Anonymous — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 20:01:43 +0000

6: Topychkanov: POSSEVI: India and Pakistan: Beyond Minimum Nuclear Deterrence?

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Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 11/07/2012 - 15:01

There are many evidences that India and Pakistan see the principle of minimum nuclear deterrence as a basis for their nuclear doctrines.

6: Fetisova: POSSEVI: PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATIVE STRATEGIC STABILITY AND STRATEGIC CULTURAL CONTEXT (CASE OF RUSSIA)

Anonymous — Wed, 07 Nov 2012 15:03:54 +0000

6: Fetisova: POSSEVI: PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATIVE STRATEGIC STABILITY AND STRATEGIC CULTURAL CONTEXT (CASE OF RUSSIA)

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Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 11/07/2012 - 10:03

Following usual rhetoric, the end of the Cold War replaced the global competition for supremacy of the two great powers and fears of a large-scale nuclear conflict between them with a new era of cooperation and consolidating efforts for enhancing international security. Significant moves forward in terms of arms control between the United States and Russia, growing support for the idea of nuclear disarmament as well as US-Russian cooperation in several important areas of mutual concern gave hopes for gradually transforming strategic stability from the old containing model based on classical nuclear deterrence and presuming adversarial relationship between states involved – to a cooperative one where the defining principle would be mutual nuclear security. Arguably, such a model would be consolidating rather than antagonizing and producing cooperative partners rather than adversarial relationships.

6: Loukianova: POSSEVI: Creating a Framework to Assess Military Transparency

Anonymous — Mon, 05 Nov 2012 16:42:07 +0000

6: Loukianova: POSSEVI: Creating a Framework to Assess Military Transparency

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Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:42

Scholars and practitioners argue that transparency will play an important role in “cultivating confidence” on the “road to zero.” But, the conceptual definitions and implied meanings of transparency vary among the many disciplines and communities involved in the study and practice of international security. Moreover, there is little to no consensus on the origins, mechanics, or dynamics of this phenomenon.

6: Jacob: POSSEVI: Revisiting Indo-Pak Strategic Stability

Anonymous — Thu, 01 Nov 2012 18:24:51 +0000

6: Jacob: POSSEVI: Revisiting Indo-Pak Strategic Stability

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Anonymous (not verified) Thu, 11/01/2012 - 14:24

Contours of South Asian Nuclear Order

The paper seeks to examine some important drivers that determine the emerging South Asian Nuclear order. South Asia’s nuclear order is easily the most dynamic one in the contemporary world. It is also widely considered to be the most dangerous and volatile nuclear order. India and Pakistan officially declared their nuclear status in 1998 although they are supposed to have crossed the nuclear threshold by developing what analyst has called recessed deterrents in the late 1980s. And yet, close to 25 or 14 years, depending upon the timeline one goes by, of ‘nuclear existence’ has not made the South Asian nuclear order a stable one. This is despite the fact that India and Pakistan arguably had their most successful peace process in this period. The current state of Indo-Pak relations also seem to be heading towards reconciliation and conflict resolution. Why is it that the political rapprochement between the two countries has not led to a stable nuclear order in the region? What explains the fact that despite the ups and downs in the India-Pakistan bilateral relations, the strategic dimension of their relationship remains consistently precarious?

6: Zhang: POSSEVI: China-Pakistan Nuclear Relations after Cold War and Its International Implications

Anonymous — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 13:21:34 +0000

6: Zhang: POSSEVI: China-Pakistan Nuclear Relations after Cold War and Its International Implications

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Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 10/29/2012 - 09:21

Though China-Pakistan relations have been viewed by both countries as ‘all weather, time-tested’ strategic cooperative partner all along, there are comparative few studies relating to this bilateral relation in the research field of Chinese foreign affairs in China. Considering the extraordinary importance of Pakistan in the integral structure of China’s foreign relations, this kind of phenomenon in the academy of China is quite abnormal. The year 2011 marked the sixtieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Pakistan. Three are a series of papers relating to China-Pakistan relations published to celebrate this occasion. However, these papers are mainly macro-level studies and focused on the strategic aspects of the bilateral relations, but lacking in in-depth studies for detailed aspects and specific issues in China-Pakistan relations.[1]

[1] See for example: DU Youkang, ‘Sino-Pakistan Strategic Cooperative Partnership: Mutual Perceptions, Characteristics and Prospects’, South Asian Studies Quarterly, No. 2, 2011; SHEN Dingli, ‘Developing Sino-Pakistan Strategic Relationship in the New Century’, South Asian Studies Quarterly, No. 2, 2011; SUN Hongqi, ‘The 60th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between China and Pakistan and Its Basic Experience’, Journal of Xuzhou Normal University (Philosophy and Social Science Edition), May 2011; ZHANG Guihong, ‘Pakistan’s Strategic Position and the Future of Sino-Pakistan Relations’, South Asian Studies Quarterly, No. 2, 2011; ZHOU Yushu, ‘A New Analysis of the Relationship between China and Pakistan’, Journal of Inner Mongolia Normal University (Philosophy & Social Science), No. 2, 2011; ZHEN Ruixiang, ‘On the Course and Prospect of Sino-Pak Relations’, South Asian Studies Quarterly, No. 4, 2011.

6: Zhao: POSSEVI: Risk-Taking and Trust-building between the U.S. and China on Nuclear Security

Anonymous — Mon, 29 Oct 2012 12:11:54 +0000

6: Zhao: POSSEVI: Risk-Taking and Trust-building between the U.S. and China on Nuclear Security

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Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 10/29/2012 - 08:11

Interests, Cooperation, Confidence, and Trust

There has been a lot of study on trust-building between national states. However, analysts defined the term trust in various ways. What makes things more complicated is the fact that people tended to use a number of related terms – such as trust, confidence, cooperation, and shared interests – in the same line without differentiating their different meanings and without discussing their relationships relative to each other. This makes the task of understanding trust and the mechanism for trust-building even more difficult. This section will try to define and differentiate these terms, and more importantly, to analyze their relations with one another. This will serve as a base for further analysis on trust-building between the U.S. and China on nuclear security.